Modeled estimates

Research

Papers, launches, and the pace of the frontier. Every number on this page is a modeled estimate smeared from a public print — not a live API, not a hard claim.

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AI papers · modeled estimate · year

AI papers posted this year

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~10 / hour

cs.AI, cs.LG, cs.CL and cs.CV combined, modeled from 2025 daily rates. The archive is no longer readable by a human. It is barely readable by a model.

A paper every six minutes, including Christmas.

Source: arXiv category volumes, 2025–26 run-rate.

Frontier launches · modeled estimate · year

Frontier-class model launches this year

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Models that land on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index above 40, or equivalent public evals. 2026 is the year six labs were on the 50-point line at once.

Four frontier launches in eight days this July.

Source: Artificial Analysis launch log, 2026; lab blogs.